Be Your Own Weatherman
Weather is the “icebreaker” when it comes to that awkward silent moment. At the dinner table, in the elevator, and even with a coworker by the water cooler. We can all relate and often find ourselves well versed in the topic as if we were some sort of expert. All it takes is a quick glance at your phone or a step outside the door to know what you’ll need to get through the conversation.
Yet here we are again talking about the weather; maybe evening complaining about the weather. Should we all be really playing ‘weatherman’? After all, Mother Nature will do what ‘she’ wants at the end of the day.
Accuracy Counts
What are we really looking at when we check the weather from our smartphones? There’s no possible way one person, or a team of people could be forecasting every square inch of the world. Not with any kind of precision. So of course, we put a bunch of computers to the task.
Most of us have heard the TV meteorologist talk about the “European weather model” or “American weather model” when it comes to tracking a major snowstorm or hurricane. What most people don’t know is that these global weather models are only run four times every 24-hours. So are meteorologists just sitting at the helm awaiting the next model run?
Weather models aren’t fool proof. When it comes to the physics and calculus that goes into each model, there is a great deal of rounding and estimating of numbers before the model is even ran. Not to mention, if the initial conditions for the model are incorrect, talking temperature, precipitation, wind speed, pressure center locations, then that model run may be totally worthless. Think of the butterfly effect. One small error at hour one can turn into a falsified super typhoon on the other side of the planet at hour 120.
So how does your weather app work around these issues? We’ve all been there when the forecast says there’s a 10% chance of rain and it’s pouring outside. Then the new model run comes in and the app corrects itself, but the damage is done. Yet the next day, what are we doing? Checking the same weather app and hoping for different results. I believe that defines insanity.
You Get What You Pay For
Why not try a different weather app or a new TV station? After all, there’s enough free sources out there claiming they are the “most accurate”. At the end of the day, whether it’s from your phone or an expert on TV, most of them are showing you the worst part of the weather model: the precipitation map. In my experience of professional forecasting, I couldn’t even begin to tell you how many times the placement of the rain/snow line or highest snow total moves around from run to run, model to model. Isn’t that the most important part of the forecast?
The trick of the trade isn’t about being a good guesser and picking which weather model you think is going to be right that day, although I’d say your odds might be equivalent to the roulette table. It’s about understanding the dynamics and the progression of the weather pattern and predicating how it’s going to evolve over time. For instance, a cold front that produced six tornadoes in the Midwest yesterday may only bring a few plain rain showers to the Northeast today.
So why trust a meteorologist to deliver your weather? Maybe the same reason why you would trust a mechanic to replace the breaks on your vehicle; you want it done right. The only difference is, the weather you’re getting doesn’t have a bill attached to it. So you can bet there’s some errors in that weather blender you call an app.
The Private Weather Sector
Over the past ten years or so, businesses have come to the realization that free data isn’t working. Corporations are seeking out experts that can provide precision when it comes to risk mitigation, because at the end of the day somebody somewhere is going to sue you after they slip and fall on ice in your parking lot. So, became the birth of the private weather industry.
Big or small, business want to know when to close up shop or when to safely send their staff home to reduce potential liability. It’s a big decision to make and it all comes down to having the right bit of information. Snow removal contractors lose money when they salt a driveway and it ends up raining. Schools risk the safety of their students and staff when sending kids home in the middle of a snow storm. Most places now just close altogether at the mention of snow.
You can begin to see why paying for accurate weather information might actually be worth it in the long run. That thousand dollars or so to hire a subject matter expert can pay for itself in one or two events, not to mention, reduce your risk and liability, and grant you access to a meteorologist that can walk you through those big decisions. But the question is, how does one go about finding the right meteorologist. Well, just like your car mechanic, you may have already gone through a few. Granted while there are much fewer weather experts out there, you might have just found the right one.
Great info!!